Another coordinated cyber attack - this time on the websites operated by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) - was launched over the weekend that marked the one-year anniversary of the “cyber war” offensive against Estonia. That three-week internet barrage on Estonia’s civil electronic portals occurred amid ire in Moscow about Estonia’s decision to move a Soviet war memorial out of the city center in the Estonian capital, Tallinn. Labeled the world’s first “cyber war” by some observers, the episode is recounted and analyzed in depth in Kertu Ruus’s article in the newest issue of European Affairs.

This time, the principal targets were RFE/RL’s sites in Belarus, which were put out of action for several days until the attacks were publicly reported - and then abruptly ceased. April 26, the day the attacks began, was the 22nd anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, and RFE/RL had been planning live internet coverage of a large rally that day protesting the plight of uncompensated Chernobyl victims - many of whom lived in Belarus and were in the zone of heavy radioactive fallout from the reactor that suffered a meltdown in neighboring Ukraine. At the time, in 1986, both those countries were part of the Soviet Union and ruled from Moscow.

The recent cyber attacks came just days after the so-called “Hackers Panel” convened in London at the annual InfoSecurity Europe conference. The panel includes “white hat” hackers, who help companies tighten up their digital security by searching for flaws in their defenses. This year the hackers, who for the first time broke their usual custom of anonymity, warned that major nationwide British shopping chains were likely prime targets for future cyber attacks. “If someone wants to have a pop at the UK, they are unlikely to go for the government web servers,” said Steve Armstrong, an expert in hacking and a member of the panel. “They will go for the lower hanging fruit - companies which are seen as good representatives of the country.”

Related Post:
Lessons from Estonia: Homeland Security Chief Says Cyber Threat “on par with 9/11″, 18 April 2008

See Also:
RFE/RL Websites Hit By Mass Cyberattack, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 28 April 2008
Radio Free Europe says it’s under cyber attack, Associated Press, 28 April 2008
Hackers warn High Street chains, BBC News, 25 April 2008

Michael Chertoff, the U.S. homeland security head, warned recently that the potential harm of a cyber-warfare attack was “on a par” with what the United States sustained in the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001. He issued the warning this month at a public meeting of information-technology specialists in California.

This threat is treated in depth in the current issue of European Affairs, due out this week in the article entitled “Cyber War I” about the massive attack last year on Estonia’s civilian infrastructure of communications, finance and public service. Western defenses are still in their infancy, and Chertoff’s comments were partly aimed at getting the tech community to overcome their inhibitions about helping national security in this realm. As described in this reconstruction of the episode in Estonia, the tide was turned in Cyber War I partly thanks to a helping hand from some top global geeks. Written by Kertu Ruus, U.S. bureau chief of the leading Estonian business daily Aripaev, the article talks about the status of Western readiness against computer warfare, including the creation in Estonia of a NATO center to work on this specialized form of war.

At last week’s IT conference in Silicon Valley, Chertoff’s overtures to technology’s private sector were clear: “Please send some of your brightest and best to do service in the government,” he asked the audience. He acknowledged that the Federal government is unable to compete with private industry in terms of money, but hoped that some of the U.S.’s top IT professionals would be drawn to DHS out of a desire to serve their country.

Read Kertu Ruus’s account of Cyber War I in the upcoming issue of European Affairs.

See Also: Cyber risk ‘equals 9/11 impact’, BBC News, 8 April 2008

As noted here before, Georgia and its allies (including the United States and most EU member states) have feared that Russia might be “paving the way” for official recognition of Abkhazia and Ossetia, the Georgian provinces with separatist ambitions. Following the West’s recognition of Kosovo, which Russia opposed, Moscow warned that the move could cause further provincial splits in the porous Caucasus region, and some Europeans feared that the warning might become a self-fulfilling prophecy– especially with help from Moscow. With each passing week, there are fresh signs that the concern may have been well-founded as, according to reports today, Russia now says it intends to upgrade ties with the two separatist territories in neighboring Georgia.

The Georgian government in Tbilisi attacked the plan as “creeping annexation” aimed at creating problems liable to complicate Georgia’s acceptance into NATO. From today’s Wall Street Journal:

Abkhazia and South Ossetia broke away from Georgian control in fighting during the early 1990s. They are protected by Russian peacekeepers, use Russian rubles, and Russian passports have been issued in recent years to a majority of the population.

Wednesday’s statement said Russia’s goal was to improve the economies of the two territories, and not to provoke confrontation with Tbilisi. It also stopped short of formally recognizing the territories’ bids for independence, though leaders in the territories and Russia’s parliament welcomed the move as a step toward recognition.

“The State Duma passed an appeal proposing the president consider the possible recognition of Abkhazia and North Ossetia. The president has taken the first step in this direction,” Oleg Morozov, first deputy speaker of Russia’s parliament said Wednesday, Russian news agency Interfax reported.

Despite strong support from the U.S. and several European nations, Georgia’s bid for NATO membership was thwarted earlier this month when Germany, France and some other European members balked at U.S. pressure and refused to agree that conditions were ripe to offer Georgia (and Ukraine, which also borders Russia) a Membership Action Plan, which is the preliminary step to a candidacy for membership in the alliance. Any NATO steps toward admitting Georgia or other eastward expansion by NATO were stiffly opposed by outgoing Russian President Vladimir Putin and his successor, Dmitry Medvedev.

RadioFree Europe also has an extensive account of the latest developments:

Determined to thwart Tbilisi’s goals of reintegration, [Russia] remains a steadfast supporter of the breakaway regime and maintains considerable leverage as the dominant player in international mediation efforts.

In recent weeks, Moscow has actively stepped up its presence in the breakaway regions, lifting economic sanctions and moving to establish semi-official “embassies.” Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 16 ordered his government to recognize legal entities registered in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Moscow, mindful of its own separatist conflicts, is likely to stop short of recognizing Tskhinvali and Sukhumi’s self-declared independence. But such moves are still deeply aggravating to Tbilisi, and ensure that Russia will continue to play a decisive role in the region.

Related Posts:
NATO Approves U.S. Missile Agenda as Allies Postpone Georgia and Ukraine, 3 April 2008
European Officials Fear Russian Meddling in Georgian Separatist Region of Abkhazia, 11 March 2008
Medvedev Steps Up Rhetoric, Warns Against NATO Expansion Eastward, 25 March 2008

See Also:
Georgia: Could More Dialogue, Fewer Demands, Be Ticket On Abkhazia? [RadioFree Europe, 16 April 2008]
Russia to Bolster Ties to Separatist Areas in Georgia [Wall Street Journal, 17 April 2008]

More news about Germany’s “new emigration”

The German government has started subsidizing moves by unemployed Germans to help them get to jobs they find abroad. Known as “mobility incentives,” these payments cover moving costs for workers and their families anywhere in the world. The amounts range from 100 euro to around 1000 euro, depending on circumstances, and cover several separate items from actual travel to the cost of moving furniture or buying new furniture and other basic necessities.

Officials at the European Commission in Brussels told Reuters that they were unaware any of other EU country offering such help for moves abroad.

As reported by National Public Radio (April 16, 2008) and Forbes (April 15, 2008), this assistance has drawn mixed reactions in Germany. Some economists say it is a bad policy for a nation with a shrinking population and a comparatively low birth rate. Some critics describe it as a recipe for disaster because Germany already has a shortage of skilled labor that is now acute in some industries such as engineering and car-making and also looms in sectors such as retail sales, health care and finance. More generally, “depopulation” has become an issue in some areas, especially the formerly Communist east Länder. The funds are also available for relocations inside Germany.

So far, the number of beneficiaries has been limited, apparently in the hundreds. Officials in Germany were quoted saying that statistics were not yet available because the program is administered through local authorities, not the central government.

The German authorities apparently feel the program may prove a useful step in fighting unemployment which is in excess of 3.5 million people - about eight percent of the labor force (one percentage point higher than the eurozone average).

Related Post: The mobility initiative fits into a larger picture of a degree of greater readiness among Germans to emigrate, which we noted here last week.

President Bush’s plan to build a missile-defense shield in Europe won approval from NATO at yesterday’s Bucharest summit meetings, marking an important victory for the U.S. agenda and for American hopes of getting Moscow to ease its opposition. But the summit balked at U.S. pressure to start an admission process for Ukraine and Georgia as premature and liable to raise tensions with Russia.

The planned ballistic missile-defense system involves 10 interceptor missiles based in Poland and a tracking radar site in the Czech Republic. Poland and the Czech Republic are pleased to announce the completion of negotiations on a missile defense agreement,” says a joint statement by the two countries, issued on the fringes of the NATO summit in Bucharest (3 April).

In endorsing the project, a statement by the 26 nations alliance said that the system “will be linked to other US missile defense facilities in Europe and the US.” In addition according to NATO’s Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, the alliance will “develop options for a comprehensive missile defense architecture to extend coverage to all ally territory and population not otherwise covered by the US system.” These areas – including Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania – would not be protected by the missile shield as currently planned. In addition, plans are under discussion about how a NATO-focused network of defenses against short-and-medium-range missiles could be “bolted onto” the planned U.S. shield supposed to operate against long-range attacks.

The U.S. was less successful in its bid to gain NATO admission for the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine. The alliance moved to admit Croatia and Albania, but Germany and France led opposition to Bush’s push to expand the alliance into Georgia and Ukraine with a “membership action plan (MAP),” arguing that such a move would unduly provoke Russia, which has vehemently opposed the idea. Most NATO governments also take the view that both these countries have internal troubles – separatism in Georgia, a deep split about Russia in Ukraine – that could become problematical if they were put officially on track to NATO membership. (more…)

Germans are emigrating at a record pace despite their country’s strengthening economy. In 2006, roughly 155,000 Germans left the country, apparently drawn by economic hopes. It marks a new peak of emigration since the postwar wave in the 1950’s. (The net balance of influx and outflow turned “negative” again in 2005 when departures outnumbered returns and immigrants.)

Germany, like other countries in the European Union, is experiencing the effect of EU encouragement for mobility among member states. Britain, Sweden and the Netherlands, are also seeing record-breaking emigration figures. (Some of their emigrants go to Germany.)

For German officials, the trend increases concerns about a looming shortage of highly-skilled workers: the government is working on measures to attract qualified immigrants to fill this gap. The new pattern also aggravates the problem of an ageing German population and shrinking work force that is liable to poses problems for retirement financing.

When Juergen Schupp, of the German Institute of Economic Research, surveyed 2,000 Germans in the 16-year-old category, he found that about two percent of them were considering leaving the country, many of them within a year. Some of them cited the tax burden, together with obstacles to small-scale entrepreneurship, as reasons for considering emigration from Germany. Of course, this does not mean all of them will actually leave. Simultaneously, German academics are showing more mobility, but many of them leave only temporarily.

In the meantime, even Germans who stay can leave vicariously — by watching reality shows (such as “My New Life” or “My New Job”) about their countrymen emigrating.

A survey by Germany’s Federal Statistics Office listed the top destinations for German emigrants in 2005:

Switzerland: 14,000
United States: 13,000
Austria: 10,000
Poland: 9,000

Via NPR, March 28, 2008; Deutsche Welle July 2006; German Institute for Economic Research.