The Bush administration pushed ahead this week in its face-off with Russia over independence for Kosovo - and Russia pushed back in the Caucasus.

Since warning that recognition of Kosovars’ demands could trigger similar separatist ambitions in Abkhasia and elsewhere in Georgia, Moscow has announced plans to move more Russian “peacekeepers” into the breakaway province of Georgia - a step that alarmed Georgian leaders as a possible step toward full recognition threatening to partially dismember Georgia.

President Mikhail Saakashvili of the Republic of Georgia was on an official visit to Washington, where he obtained President George W. Bush’s backing for NATO, at its forthcoming summit, to offer to open a negotiating process that could ultimately bring Georgia into the Western alliance. Bush also announced that he was approving Kosovo as a candidate to receive U.S. military assistance.

This escalation between Washington and Moscow marks the outbreak of a new Cold War, according to Stratfor, an on-line geopolitical think-tank. Of course, the United States outweighs Russia and it is geographically remote from the theater of conflict. That leaves the Europeans in the front line. For the moment, they are trying to keep out of the way, but they will end up having to play major roles as independent actors in this new Cold War, Stratfor’s analyst said.

The current diplomatic inertness in the European Union can be seen in the three main governments: Germany, France and the United Kingdom are not interested in confronting Russia.

“Berlin made this very clear when it expressed a lack of interest in NATO expansion, the independence of Kosovo and the Ukraine gas issue. This is not surprising, given that the Germans are dependent upon Moscow for energy. Beyond energy, Germany’s wider economic relationship with and its proximity to Russia inform its lack of appetite for confrontation with the Kremlin,” Stratfor said.

France has its international ambitions targeted elsewhere, mainly in re-asserting its stature in Europe and emerging as a more credible player in the Middle East. “It wants no part of this new West-versus-Russia competition,” Stratfor says. Britain is preoccupied domestically.

But this will change, Stratfor predicts. Germany is re-emerging on its own again as an international power player; Britain ultimately cannot detach itself from any major U.S. geopolitical commitment; and France will ultimately find it untenable to ignore this clash. “Europe’s geography - and the fact that, unlike during the original Cold War, there isn’t an iron curtain in place - will force the Europeans to jump in or at least choose sides.”

Related Article: “The Start of Cold War II?” Stratfor’s Political Diary, 21 March 2008

From the Guardian (UK) (Feb 23, 2008):

The Bush administration yesterday urged the EU to stop dithering over the building of a $6bn (£3bn) gas pipeline from the Caspian basin to central Europe and reduce its growing dependence on Russia’s Gazprom.

“Follow your wallet,” Matthew Bryza, US deputy assistant secretary of state, said, arguing that the troubled Nabucco project made sound commercial sense and would cut Europe’s dependence on Gazprom by up to a quarter.

Bryza’s outspoken comments came after talks with senior EU officials, including energy commissioner Andris Piebalgs, and took sideswipes at the “gigantic rents” [excessive prices] Gazprom is charging Europe for gas. They underline the growing geo-political importance of gas.

“Helping Europe diversify its gas supplies has become extremely urgent,” said Bryza, adding that US backing for Nabucco was in the country’s national interests even though no American companies are involved….

“We want to help Gazprom to move from a monopoly towards more market-based behaviour,” he said. “We want it to be reliable and produce more gas at home in a more competitive domestic market rather than buying up as much infrastructure here in Europe or the cheapest possible gas it can find in Central Asia.”

Related Article: U.S. official says Europe needs alternatives to Russian natural gas, Associated Press, 22 February 2008.